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Opinion polling for the 2020 Israeli legislative election

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In the run up to the 2020 Israeli legislative election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Israel during the term of the 22nd Knesset. This article lists the results of such polls.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous election, held on 17 September 2019, to the present day. The elections are to be held on 2 March 2020.[1] No polls may be published from the end of the Friday before the election until the polling stations close on election day at 22:00.[2]

Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the highest figures. When a poll has no information on a certain party, that party is instead marked by a dash (–).

Seat projections

This section displays voting intention estimates referring to a hypothetical Knesset election. The figures listed are Knesset seat counts rather than percentages, unless otherwise stated.

Graphs

This graph shows the polling trends from the 17 September 2019 Israeli legislative election until election day using 4-poll moving average. Scenario polls are not included here.

For parties not crossing the electoral threshold (currently 3.25%) in any given poll, the number of seats is calculated as a percentage of the 120 total seats.

Local regression of polls conducted

Polls

Poll results are listed in the table below. Parties that fall below the electoral threshold are denoted by the percentage of votes that they received (N%) rather than the number of seats they would have gotten.

Legend

61 seats are required for a majority in the Knesset.

Note: The composition of the current government does not necessarily determine the exact makeup of the post-election government.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Date Polling firm Publisher Blue &
White
Likud Joint
List
Emet Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu
UTJ Yamina Otzma Gov.
Pre-election seats 33 32 13 10 9 8 7 7 55
2 Mar 2020 Election results[3] 33 36 15 7 9 7 7 6 (0.42%)[4] 58
2 Mar 2020 Kantar Kan 11[5] 33 36 15 6 9 6 8 7 60
2 Mar 2020 Midgam Channel 12[5] 33 37 14 7 9 6 7 7 60
2 Mar 2020 Camile Fuchs Channel 13[5] 32 37 14 6 9 8 8 6 60
28 Feb 2020 Election silence starting end of Friday before election day[2]
28 Feb 2020 Smith Maariv[6] 34 35 14 8 9 6 7 7 58
28 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[7] 33 33 15 9 8 7 7 8 (1.8%) 56
27–28 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12[8] 33 35 14 9 8 6 8 7 (1.5%) 58
27 Feb 2020 Panels Politics Maariv & The Jerusalem Post[9] 34 34 13 9 9 7 7 7 (2.1%) 57
27 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News[10] 33 33 14 9 8 7 7 9 (2%) 57
27 Feb 2020 Kantar Kan 11[11] 34 35 14 8 8 6 8 7 (1.6%) 58
26 Feb 2020 Direct Polls Arutz Sheva[12] 33 35 13 9 9 6 8 7 (0.96%) 59
25 Feb 2020 Midgam Walla![13] 34 34 13 9 8 7 8 7 (1.7%) 57
25 Feb 2020 Panels Politics 103fm[14] 32 34 14 9 8 8 7 8 (2%) 57
24 Feb 2020 Kantar Kan 11[15] 33 34 14 10 8 7 7 7 (1.9%) 56
24 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[16] 32 33 14 10 8 8 7 8 (2.0%) 56
23 Feb 2020 Kantar Kan 11[17] 34 35 14 9 8 7 7 6 (1.3%) 56
23 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12[18] 33 34 13 10 8 7 8 7 (1.5%) 57
19–20 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News[19] 36 33 13 8 8 7 7 8 (1%) 56
19–20 Feb 2020 Direct Polls Arutz Sheva[20] 31 33 14 10 9 7 8 8 (1.2%) 58
19 Feb 2020 Panels Politics Maariv[21] 36 32 14 8 9 8 7 7 (2.6%) 54
19 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12[22] 35 33 13 9 8 7 8 7 (1.6%) 56
17 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[23] 36 33 14 8 7 8 7 7 (1.9%) 54
16–17 Feb 2020 Midgam Walla![24] 34 33 13 10 8 7 8 7 (2.5%) 56
13–14 Feb 2020 Panels Politics 103fm[25] 35 32 14 8 8 7 8 8 (2.8%) 56
13 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12[26] 35 33 13 9 8 7 8 7 (2.2%) 56
12–13 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News[27] 34 32 14 8 8 7 8 9 (1%) 57
12–13 Feb 2020 Smith Maariv[28] 34 33 14 9 9 7 7 7 (1.4%) 56
11–12 Feb 2020 Panels Politics Makor Rishon[29] 36 33 14 7 8 7 8 7 (2.6%) 56
7 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[30] 35 33 14 10 7 8 7 6 (1.5%) 53
6 Feb 2020 Direct Polls Channel 20[31] 33 34 13 10 8 7 8 7 (1%) 57
5–6 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News[32] 36 34 13 8 8 6 7 8 (1%) 57
5 Feb 2020 Panels Politics Maariv[33] 36 33 13 8 7 7 8 8 (2.8%) 56
5 Feb 2020 Midgam Walla![34] 34 32 13 9 8 8 8 8 (1.7%) 56
30 Jan 2020 Maagar Mochot 103fm[35] 34 31 14 9 9 7 7 9 (1.5%) 56
29 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Maariv[36] 36 33 13 7 8 8 8 7 56
29 Jan 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[37] 35 34 12 10 7 8 7 7 (2.1%) 55
29 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12[38] 35 33 13 8 8 8 7 8 (2.2%) 56
29 Jan 2020 Kantar Kan 11[39] 34 33 14 8 8 8 8 7 (1.1%) 56
28 Jan 2020 Direct Polls Israel Hayom[40] 33 35 13 9 8 7 8 7 (1.32%) 58
28 Jan 2020 Announcement of Trump's Peace Plan[41]
22–23 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Makor Rishon[42] 35 32 14 8 8 7 8 8 (2.6%) 56
22–23 Jan 2020 Midgam Walla![43] 35 32 13 9 8 8 7 8 (2.2%) 55
20–21 Jan 2020 Kantar Kan 11[44] 35 31 13 9 8 8 8 8 (1.93%) 55
19 Jan 2020 Direct Polls Channel 13[45] 34 32 13 10 8 7 8 8 (1.1%) 56
16 Jan 2020 Maagar Mochot 103fm[46] 34 30 14 10 8 8 7 9 (1.0%) 54
16 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12[47] 34 32 13 8 8 8 7 10 (2.1%) 57
16 Jan 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[48] 34 31 14 9 6 8 7 7 4 51
16 Jan 2020 Kantar Kan 11[49] 36 31 13 9 9 7 8 7 (2.2%) 55
16 Jan 2020 (midnight) Deadline to submit the candidate lists[50]
15 Jan 2020 Yamina alliance reestablished, United Jewish Home dissolves[51]
15 Jan 2020 Green Party withdrawal[52]
Date Polling firm Publisher Blue &
White
Likud Joint
List
Emet Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu
UTJ New
Right
NU UJH Green Gov.
Current seats 33 32 13 10 9 8 7 5 2 1 55
14 Jan 2020 Direct Polls Arutz Sheva[53] 34 32 13 10 8 8 8 7 (2.4%) (2.3%) 55
14 Jan 2020 (noon) Beginning of registration for candidate lists[54]
14 Jan 2020 New Right and National Union merger[55]
13 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12[56] 34 31 13 9 8 7 7 6 5 (0.4%) 57
34 32 13 9 8 7 7 10 (0.4%) 57
34 32 13 9 8 7 7 6 4 (0.4%) 57
13 Jan 2020 Labor-Gesher and Meretz merger,[57] Democratic Union dissolves
Date Polling firm Publisher Blue &
White
Likud Joint
List
Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu
UTJ Labor-
Gesher
Dem.
Union
New
Right
NU UJH Green Gov.
JH Otzma
Current seats 33 32 13 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 1 55
9 Jan 2020 Midgam Arutz Sheva[58] 34 32 13 8 7 7 5 4 6 4 57
34 32 13 8 7 8 5 4 9 (2.7%) 57
8–9 Jan 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[59] 34 30 15 7 7 8 5 5 4 (1%) 5 (0.2%) 54
34 29 14 7 7 8 5 5 11 55
33 29 14 7 7 7 5 5 5 8 56
33 30 13 7 7 7 11 6 (1%) 6 56
39[a] 31 14 7 11 7 [a] 6 (1%) 5 56
8–9 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Makor Rishon[60] 35 31 14 8 8 8 5 (2.4%) 7 4 58
35 31 14 7 8 7 5 (2.4%) 7 6 58
35 31 14 8 8 7 5 (2.4%) 8 4 58
35 33 14 8 8 7 5 (2.4%) 10 58
35 32 14 8 8 8 5 (2.4%) 10 (2.1%) 58
8 Jan 2020 Midgam Walla![61] 35 33 13 8 8 8 5 4 6 (1.1%) (2.8%) (0.2%) 55
34 32 13 8 8 8 9 8 56
7 Jan 2020 Meretz and Democratic Choice agree to run together as the Democratic Union list[62]
2 Jan 2020 KANTAR Kan 11[63] 35 33 13 7 7 8 6 5 6 (3%) 54
2 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12[64] 35 33 13 8 8 8 5 4[b] 6 (0.9%) (2.6%) (0.0%) 55
34 32 13 8 7 7 5 4[c] 6 4 [d] 57
2 Jan 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[65] 36 34 13 7 6 7 5 4 8 (2.9%) 56
35 33 13 7 7 7 10 8 55
1 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Maariv[66] 36 30 13 8 8 7 5 (2.9%) 6 7 58
29 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[67] 34 32 13 8 8 7 5 4 5 4 56
26 Dec 2019 Likud reelects Benjamin Netanyahu as its leader[68]
20 Dec 2019 The Jewish Home and Otzma Yehudit agree to run together on a list called the United Jewish Home[69][70]
19 Dec 2019 Smith 103fm[71] 35 32 13 8 7 7 5 4 5 4 56
19 Dec 2019 Stav Shaffir announces independent run of the Green Party[72]
Date Polling firm Publisher Blue &
White
Likud Joint
List
Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu
UTJ Labor-
Gesher
Dem.
Union
JHNU New
Right
Otzma
Yehudit
Gov.
Current seats 33 32 13 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 55
18 Dec 2019 Panels Politics Makor Rishon[73] 38 34 14 8 7 7 5 (2.1%) (2.7%) 7 (1.6%) 56
15 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan 11[74] 35 31 13 9 8 7 6 5 6 53
12 Dec 2019 Smith Maariv[75] 35 33 12 8 7 7 5 4 4[e] 5 [e] 57
12 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[76] 37 31 14 8 8 7 6 4 (2%) 5 (1%) 51
12 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[77] 35 32 13 8 8 8 5 5 (2.8%) 6 (1.3%) 54
12 Dec 2019 The Knesset is dissolved[1]
10 Dec 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[78] 37 33 13 6 8 7 5 5 6 52
9–10 Dec 2019 Midgam Walla![79] 35 33 13 8 8 8 5 4 (2.1%) 6 (1.3%) 55
8 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan Radio[80] 35 34 13 8 7 8 5 4 (2.4%) 6 (1.9%) 56
5 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[81] 34 33 13 8 8 8 5 5 (2.2%) 6 (1.9%) 55
5 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot 103fm[82] 34 32 12 8 8 8 4 4 4 6 58
28 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[83] 35 33 13 9 8 8 4 4 (2%) 6 (1%) 56
28 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot 103fm[84] 35 33 13 9 8 8 4 4 6 56
26–27 Nov 2019 Smith Maariv[85] 35 33 13 8 8 7 5 5 6 54
26 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12[86] 34 33 13 8 9 8 5 4 (2.3%) 6 (1.2%) 55
25–26 Nov 2019 Midgam Walla![87] 34 33 13 9 8 7 5 4 (2.3%) 7 (1.2%) 56
25 Nov 2019 Panels Politics Channel 12[88] 37 30 12 8 7 7 5 4 4 6 55
22 Nov 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam/Statnet[89] Channel 13[90] 36 33 13 6 8 6 4 4 4 6 55
21–22 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[91] 34 33 13 8 7 8 4 6 7 (2%) 56
21 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12[92] 33 33 13 8 9 7 5 5 7 55
21 Nov 2019 Kantar Kan 11[93] 33 33 12 7 8 8 5 5 4 5 57
21 Nov 2019 Attorney General indicts incumbent PM Benjamin Netanyahu on corruption charges[90]
15 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[94] 33 31 13 10 9 7 6 6 5 53
10 Nov 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[95] 35 34 13 6 9 6 5 4 4 4 54
31 Oct 2019 Maagar Mochot 103fm[96] 34 33 12 9 8 6 7 5 6 54
22 Oct 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[97] 34 33 13 7 8 7 5 4 5 4 56
10 Oct 2019 Yamina splits into two factions[98]
Date Polling firm Publisher Blue &
White
Likud Joint
List
Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu
UTJ Yamina Labor-
Gesher
Dem.
Union
Otzma
Yehudit
Gov.
3–6 Oct 2019 Midgam Walla![99] 33 33 13 9 7 7 7 6 5 56
17 Sep 2019 Election results[100] 33 32 13 9 8 7 7 6 5 (1.88%) 55

Scenarios

Gideon Sa'ar founds a new party
Date Polling firm Publisher Blue &
White
Likud Sa'ar Joint
List
Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu
UTJ Labor-
Gesher
Dem.
Union
URWP New
Right
Gov.
Current seats 33 32 13 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 55
1 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Maariv[66] 34 28 6 13 8 7 7 4 7 6 62
Gideon Sa'ar leading Likud
Date Polling firm Publisher Blue &
White
Likud Joint
List
Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu
UTJ Labor-
Gesher
Dem.
Union
JHNU New
Right
Otzma Gov.
Current seats 33 32 13 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 55
19 Dec 2019 Smith 103fm[71] 33 30 13 9 6 7 5 4 5[e] 8 [e] 59
18 Dec 2019 Panels Politics Makor Rishon[73] 34 30 14 8 7 8 5 (2.6%) 4 10 (2%) 60
15 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan 11[74] 34 27 13 10 7 7 5 5 4 8 56
12 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[76] 33 31 15 11 7 7 5 4 (2%) 7 (2%) 56
12 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[77] 35 26 13 8 8 7 5 5 4 9 (2.1%) 54
10 Dec 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[78] 35 29 13 7 8 7 4 5 5 7 55
8 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan 11[101] 33 32 13 9 8 8 5 4 8 57
28 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot 103fm[84] 33 28 14 11 9 9 4 12 60
26–27 Nov 2019 Smith Maariv[85] 35 31 13 8 7 7 5 4 4 6 56
26 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12[86] 35 26 13 10 9 8 6 4 (2.9%) 9 (2.2%) 53
3–6 Oct 2019 Midgam Walla![99] 33 26 13 10 7 8 6 5 12 56

Prime minister

Due to the political deadlock which resulted after the previous election, Shas chairman and Interior Minister Aryeh Deri suggested direct elections for prime minister.[102] Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which party leader they would prefer as prime minister. Their responses are given as percentages in the tables below.

Netanyahu vs Gantz
Date Polling firm Publisher Netanyahu Gantz Neither Don't Know
28 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[7] 45 35 13 7
27–28 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12[8] 44 32
27 Feb 2020 Panels Politics Maariv & The Jerusalem Post[9] 45 36 13 7
27 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News[10] 49 35 16
27 Feb 2020 Kantar Kan 11[11] 45 34 21
25 Feb 2020 Panels Politics 103fm[14] 44 35 11 10
24 Feb 2020 Kantar Kan 11[15] 44 34 22
24 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[16] 44 30 19 7
23 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12[18] 43 33 18 6
19–20 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News[19] 45 35 20
19 Feb 2020 Panels Politics Maariv[21] 43 39 18
19 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12[22] 42 34 18 6
17 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[23] 45 33 16 6
16–17 Feb 2020 Midgam Walla![24] 43 35 16 6
13–14 Feb 2020 Panels Politics 103fm[25] 43 40 17
13 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12[26] 42 36 17 5
12–13 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News[27] 47 35 18
12–13 Feb 2020 Smith Maariv[28] 49 40 11
7 Feb 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[30] 44 32 16 8
5–6 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News[32] 47 39 14
29 Jan 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[37] 43 33 24
29 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12[38] 41 37 16 6
16 Jan 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[48] 40 36 17 7
16 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12[47] 40 38 16 6
16 Jan 2020 Kantar Kan 11[49] 41 42 17
13 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12[56] 39 39 16 6
10 Jan 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[59] 43 38 19
2 Jan 2020 Direct Polls Channel 13[103] 48.5 45.9 5.0 0.6
2 Jan 2020 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[65] 41 33 13 12
2 Jan 2020 Midgam Channel 12[64] 40 39 15 6
1 Jan 2020 Panels Politics Maariv[66] 41 40 19
29 Dec 2019 Direct Polls Channel 13[103] 47.5 45.0 5.3 2.1
29 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[67] 40 38 16 6
12 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[76] 42 40 18
12 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[77] 38 37 19 6
9–10 Dec 2019 Midgam Walla![79] 37 38 16 9
8 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan Radio[80] 41 38 21
5 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[81] 39 37 17 7
28 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[83] 45 39 16
26 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12[86] 40 39 14 7
21–22 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[91] 44 37 19
15 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[94] 43 41 16
11 Nov 2019 Midgam Army Radio[104] 44 39
10 Nov 2019 Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[95] 40 37 23
5 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12[102] 40 36 24
Sa'ar vs Gantz
Date Polling firm Publisher Sa'ar Gantz Neither Don't Know
12 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[76] 31 36 33
12 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[77] 22 36 30 12
8 Dec 2019 Kantar Kan Radio[80] 28 36 36
5 Dec 2019 Midgam Channel 12[81] 19 36 31 14
26 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12[86] 23 40 24 13

Coalition

Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which coalition they would prefer. The tables below list their responses as percentages.

Minority government backed by the Joint List
Date Polling firm Publisher Support Oppose Don't Know
16–17 Feb 2020 Midgam Walla![24] 28 54[f] 18
13 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12[26] 25 56 19
5–6 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News[32] 29 54 17
11 Nov 2019 Midgam Army Radio[104] 34 59
General
Date Polling firm Publisher National unity government Right Left Don't Know
Likud-B&W only w/ right-wing block w/ Yisrael Beiteinu
12–13 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News[27] 19 17 30 22 12
5–6 Feb 2020 Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News[32] 17 17 30 23 13
5 Feb 2020 Panels Politics Maariv[33] 26 16 23 19 16
12 Dec 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[76] 30 19 20 15 16
21 Nov 2019 Kantar Kan 11[93] 40 24 15
15 Nov 2019 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[94] 40 28 17 15
National unity government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu
Date Polling firm Publisher Support Oppose Don't Know
13 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12[26] 50 25[f] 25
3–6 Oct 2019 Midgam Walla![99] 42 50 8
National unity government headed by Benny Gantz
Date Polling firm Publisher Support Oppose Don't Know
13 Feb 2020 Midgam Channel 12[26] 52 27[f] 21
National unity government
Date Polling firm Publisher Support Oppose Don't Know
5 Feb 2020 Midgam Walla![34] 52 26 22
Government headed by Benny Gantz
Date Polling firm Publisher National unity government Center-left &
Yisrael Beiteinu
Other
with Netanyahu without Netanyahu
with Haredim without Haredim with Haredim
9 Nov 2019 Midgam Channel 12[105] 29.1 17.9 20.3 3.2 19 10.5

Notes

  1. ^ a b Merger of Blue and White, Labor-Gesher and the Democratic Union
  2. ^ Meretz only (thus without the Israel Democratic Party)
  3. ^ Meretz and the Green Party only (thus without the Israel Democratic Party)
  4. ^ Within the Democratic Union
  5. ^ a b c d Within the Union of Right-Wing Parties
  6. ^ a b c Prefer a fourth consecutive snap election.

References

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  2. ^ a b s:he:חוק הבחירות (דרכי תעמולה)#סעיף 16ה (ח) (in Hebrew)
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  26. ^ a b c d e Daphna Liel (13 February 2020). "בחירות 2020 | סקר חדשות 12: מה יעדיפו הישראלים במקרה ששוב לא תושג הכרעה?". mako (in Hebrew). Retrieved 13 February 2020.
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